A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
